IMF Projects Stable Global Growth in 2026 as AI Investment Cushions Trade Pressures

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected steady global economic growth in 2026, supported by strong investment in artificial intelligence (AI) and related technologies, even as rising trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainties continue to weigh on the outlook. In its latest assessment, the IMF said the global economy is showing resilience, with innovation and productivity gains helping to counterbalance policy and trade-related risks .

According to the IMF, global gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to grow by around 3.3% in 2026, broadly unchanged from the pace seen in 2025 and slightly higher than earlier forecasts. The Fund noted that robust capital spending, particularly in advanced economies, is underpinning growth, while inflation is gradually easing, allowing central banks to cautiously adjust monetary policy settings .

A key driver of the improved outlook is the surge in investment linked to artificial intelligence, including spending on data centres, semiconductors and digital infrastructure. The IMF said this wave of technological investment is boosting productivity and supporting business confidence, especially in the United States and parts of Asia, helping to offset the drag from weaker global trade growth .

At the same time, the IMF warned that trade headwinds remain a significant risk. Ongoing and potential new tariffs, as well as geopolitical tensions, could disrupt supply chains and dampen cross-border investment. While companies have shown adaptability by diversifying markets and restructuring supply chains, the Fund cautioned that a sharp escalation in trade disputes could still undermine the global recovery .

Regionally, the IMF expects the United States to continue benefiting from strong technology-driven investment, while growth in China is forecast to remain moderate but stable, supported by exports and targeted policy support. Europe is expected to see a gradual improvement, though growth there remains more subdued compared with other major economies .

Overall, the IMF said the global economy is on a relatively steady footing heading into 2026, but stressed that policymakers must manage risks carefully. Sustaining growth will depend on avoiding further trade fragmentation, ensuring financial stability and translating the AI investment boom into lasting productivity gains across economies .