JPMorgan Lowers Gold Price Forecast to $4,500 per Ounce for Fourth Quarter Amid Softer Demand

JPMorgan has revised its near-term outlook for gold prices, forecasting the precious metal to average $4,300 per ounce in the third quarter of 2026 before rising to $4,500 per ounce in the fourth quarter. The new projection marks a significant reduction from the bank’s earlier forecast of $6,000 per ounce by the end of 2026, reflecting expectations of weaker-than-anticipated investment and physical demand.

The global investment bank said risks to the revised forecast remain tilted to the downside, citing the possibility of stronger U.S. economic growth and a more hawkish monetary policy. According to JPMorgan, if the U.S. economy continues to outperform expectations, the U.S. Federal Reserve could maintain higher interest rates for longer or even tighten monetary policy further. Such a scenario would likely strengthen the U.S. dollar and reduce the appeal of gold, a non-yielding asset.

Despite the softer short-term outlook, JPMorgan remains optimistic about gold’s long-term prospects. The bank expects demand to recover in 2027, supported by continued purchases from central banks, ongoing geopolitical tensions and sustained investor interest in safe-haven assets. These structural factors are expected to provide a strong foundation for gold prices once current market headwinds begin to ease.

Gold prices have shown resilience despite the revised forecast. Spot gold recently climbed 1.3% to $4,174.21 per ounce, its highest level since June 23, and was on track to register a weekly gain of more than 2%. The gains were supported by weaker-than-expected U.S. economic data, which reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve may adopt a more measured approach to future interest rate decisions.

JPMorgan also updated its outlook for other precious metals. The bank expects silver to average between $60 and $65 per ounce, while platinum is projected to reach $1,800 per ounce by the end of 2026 and $1,950 per ounce by the end of 2027. Palladium is forecast to average $1,350 per ounce in 2026 before easing slightly to $1,300 per ounce in 2027, reflecting varying demand trends across industrial and investment markets.